Market Update 7.1
ASX is looking for a positive opening today with SPI currently up by 18 points to 6577. This is on the back on positive closes across US & Europe on Friday. In US, Dow Jones closed up 0.3%, S & P up by 0.6% with Nasdaq closed up 0.5%. In Europe, FTSE closed up 0.3%, CAC up 0.8% with DAX closed up 1%.
In Commodities, Gold closed flat at US 1409.55 a tonne, Brent Oil also closed flat at US 66.55 a barrel, US Oil was down 2.1% a barrel with Iron Oil closing down 2.1% to US 58.20 a barrel.
The outlook for Australia shares are good for the new fiscal year, boosted by the weekend US – China trade truce with local investors positioning for a possible rate cute as soon as tomorrow.
President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to renew efforts to resolve the trade dispute between the 2 nations during a meeting at the G20 in Japan.
Local market is tipping RBA Governor Philip Lowe to announce a 25 bpts cut to 1% tomorrow and expect to pare its growth and inflation forecasts by November, which will forestall credibly lowering its jobless rate forecast. That combination means further rate cute would be appropriate.
Wall Street had a positive end to the week and month on Friday in NY, extending the equity bull market rally. S & P and Dow closing the books on their best June in generations. All three major US stock indexes gained ground at the close of the week, quarter and first half of the year, during which time the US stock market has had a remarkable run. The S & P had its best June since 1955. The Dow posted its biggest June percentage gain since 1938.
The market will by busy with a number of key indicators out this week starting with today. PMI numbers are due out in China, On Tuesday PMI numbers are due out in the US follow by rate announcement by the RBA with the some experts predicting 25bpts drop. On Wednesday, Building approvals numbers are due out in Australia with the market expecting a little increase as the approval numbers dropped by 4.7% in the month of May. Retail Sales numbers for Australia is due on Thursday with the market expecting 0.2% increase in June and on Friday, Non-Farm numbers are out in the US with the market expecting 164,000 jobs created in June and unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.6%.
DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK:
CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI
AUD – Cash Rate & RBA Rate Statement
AUD – Building Approvals
CAD – Trade Balance
USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
AUD – Retail Sales m/m
CAD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
USD – Average Hourly Earnings m/m. Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate